The group stage is over. It seems like a long time ago that I predicted who would go through to the knockout round but it’s only been two weeks. Looking back at my predictions, I did okay. There was one big disappointment (that maybe wasn’t that unexpected ) and one or two mild surprises.
Group A
- Uruguay
- Russia
- Egypt
- Saudi Arabia
The opinion that I keep hearing about Russia is that no one can tell how good they are. They had big wins against two subpar teams. But then Uruguay beat them so we got an idea (and a sense that maybe the tournament isn’t totally rigged). On a personal note, I don’t care for either of these teams. I hope they both lose in the round of 16.
Group B
- Spain
- Portugal
- Iran
- Morocco
Oh yeah, if Uruguay loses in the round of 16 that means Portugal – and Ronaldo – go through. There are no winners in that game. Spain is a good team still comprised of several members of the 2010 winning team. But Sergio Ramos… I hate that guy. I’ll see them through the quarters but after that I want them gone.
Group C
- France
- Denmark
- Peru
- Australia
France are good but I can’t tell how good. We’ll see when they play Argentina (who barely belong in the knockout round). Denmark will be playing a strong Croatia side that they might not be strong enough to get past.
Group D
- Croatia
- Argentina
- Nigeria
- Iceland
I was wrong about Argentina. I gave them a 25% chance to make it out. But they did it, by the skin of Nigeria’s teeth. I predicted Nigeria would make it out and if they had been awarded a hand ball penalty that had been awarded twice before in the tournament, maybe they would have. But unfortunately they’re going home.
Croatia emerged as the strongest team in the group and I’d like to see them go far.
Group E
- Brazil
- Switzerland
- Serbia
- Costa Rica
Switzerland, who knew? Brazil. Everybody knew. I think they’ll both win their round of 16 games but a Mexico upset of Brazil would be an amazing redemption for their drubbing from Sweden. Speaking of Sweden…
Group F
- Sweden
- Mexico
- South Korea
- Germany
Sweden won this group which I count as one of the surprises of the tournament. They’re not bad or anything, they’re just… Sweden.
And I counted way too much on Germany. I thought that they couldn’t not get to at least the semifinals. But I guess World Cup hangover is a thing. Quite a few teams don’t make it past the group stage the next tournament after winning, France and Spain among them. Still, it’s Germany! This is the biggest shock so far. (And a quick shout out to Heung Min Son for the nail in the coffin goal in the dying minutes against them.)
Group G
- Belgium
- England
- Tunisia
- Panama
England lost today to Belgium, a game that was phoned in by both teams. At one point they showed the Belgian bench with Hazard, Lukaku, and de Bruyne casually talking. Kane and Henderson were on the other bench. This was a rest game. My friends kept saying that coming in second in the group would be a better spot in the bracket. I think there are no easy games now. And England have to face Colombia, which will not be easy. It’ll either disappoint me or disappoint a large segment of the New York population.
But Belgium and England have both been two of the most exciting teams in the tournament. I hope they both stay in and, hell, meet in the final.
Group H
- Colombia
- Japan
- Senegal
- Poland
Japan is another nice surprise in this tournament. I really wanted Senegal but it wasn’t to be. They lost on fair play points. They had more yellow cards than Japan did. I can’t believe that was the deciding factor. But, well, since the entire continent of Africa was eliminated, it’s nice to have one country from Asia (but they’re going to lose to Belgium).
Some parting thoughts about the officiating.
I’ve been a blowhard about some stuff (read my diving article here). I don’t like replays. I don’t like additions to the game. I think it should be left alone.
That being said, I’m warming up to VAR. I’m also totally on board with goal line technology. That’s been far more widely adopted and I’ve had a chance to get used to it and I think it’s worth having. VAR, on the other hand, irked me at first. It seemed like a way to award more penalties and there have been a lot this tournament. While I still think it places more emphasis on awarding penalties, it’s worth it for the calls that it’s gotten right. It awards some that I would like to have seen play on but it has been accurate in other instances, so, it’s ultimately worth it.
So, I’m coming around to all the new crap I hate (and I have friends who will probably never let me forget my turnaround in the above paragraph). I’ll be back tomorrow with Round of 16 predictions.
